Spring Statement 2026 Preview: What to Expect on 3 March

March 3, 2026. That's when the Chancellor delivers the Spring Statement. It's supposed to be quiet — just economic numbers, OBR forecasts, maybe some housekeeping. No big tax announcements. That's the theory anyway. In practice? "Non-events" have surprised people before. Let's talk about what's actually likely and what to keep an eye on.

What Is the Spring Statement?

The Chancellor has committed to making the Budget (usually held in autumn) the only event for major tax and spending policy announcements. The Spring Statement is meant to provide the government's response to the OBR's spring economic forecast.

In the Chancellor's own words, the government "will not normally respond to the OBR's spring forecast with fiscal policy, unless there is a significant change to the economic outlook that requires a response."

What Has Already Been Confirmed

Several changes are already legislated or confirmed from the Autumn Budget 2025 and do not need the Spring Statement to take effect:

• Dividend tax rates rising to 10.75% / 35.75% from April 2026.
• Savings and property income tax rising by 2pp from April 2026.
• Making Tax Digital launching for income over £50,000 from April 2026.
• National Living Wage increasing to £12.71/hr from April 2026.
• Inheritance tax reform (APR/BPR £2.5m cap) from April 2026.
• Homeworking expenses relief removed from April 2026.
• EV BiK rate rising to 4% from April 2026.

These are happening regardless of what the Spring Statement says.

What to Watch For

1. The OBR economic forecast

The most significant content will be the OBR's updated forecast for growth, inflation, borrowing, and debt. If the economic outlook has deteriorated since the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor may face pressure to announce additional revenue measures or spending cuts.

If the outlook has improved, there may be additional fiscal headroom — though the Chancellor has signalled she intends to keep this in reserve rather than spend it.

2. Fuel duty

The government has confirmed it will extend the temporary 5p per litre cut in fuel duty from 23 March 2026 until 31 August 2026. After that:

• Fuel duty increases by 1p on 1 September 2026.
• A further 2p increase on 1 December 2026.
• Another 2p on 1 March 2027.

The Spring Statement may provide additional detail on the transition from the temporary cut to the planned increases.

3. Defence spending

The government is under political pressure to increase defence spending. If additional funds are announced, the question is how they are financed — further borrowing, spending cuts elsewhere, or additional revenue measures.

4. Welfare spending

Announcements around Universal Credit, disability benefits, or other welfare programmes could affect household incomes, particularly for lower earners.

5. Business rates

Permanently lower business rate multipliers for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties take effect from 1 April 2026. The Spring Statement may confirm the final multiplier values.

What Is Unlikely

• Income tax or NI rate changes — The Chancellor has been clear that headline rates are not changing.
• Major new tax measures — The commitment to one Budget per year means significant tax changes should wait until the autumn.
• Changes to the threshold freeze — The freeze to 2031 was legislated in the Autumn Budget and there is no indication of a reversal.

What Does This Mean for Your Pay?

For most employees, the Spring Statement is unlikely to directly change your take-home pay. The tax changes that affect your salary for 2026/27 are already confirmed and take effect from 6 April 2026.

However, the OBR forecast may signal the direction of travel for future Budgets. If public finances are under pressure, further tax measures in the Autumn Budget 2026 become more likely.

For Contractors

For the first time in a long time, the Chancellor's spring statement is not forecast to be a tax-raising event for the UK's contractor community. The changes already in train from the Autumn Budget — particularly the employer NI rate and Making Tax Digital — are the main concerns.

How to Stay Prepared

1. Focus on what is confirmed — The April 2026 changes are certain. Plan your ISA contributions, pension strategy, and tax code review around those.
2. Monitor the OBR forecast — The economic outlook determines the political context for the next Autumn Budget.
3. Use the calculator — Model your 2026/27 take-home pay using our UK salary calculator so you know your position before the new tax year begins.

What Actually Happens

Expect quiet. The Autumn Budget already moved the needle, and the April 2026 changes are locked in by law. The real story in the Spring Statement is the OBR forecast. If it's grim — growth stalling, unemployment rising, borrowing ballooning — the politics shift. That makes an Autumn Budget with more tax hikes more likely, even if nothing happens in March.

So watch the forecast numbers. They tell you what's coming next.